The Rams continued to dominate like I expected when I wrote about them being THE sleeper team in the postseason scrum. By that I mean, a team that was viewed as unlikely to qualify but could beat any team if they did. Do you realize they’ll likely have two Top 10 fantasy picks next season, and three in the Top 20 (Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in that order)? When these guys are all healthy, the Rams are nearly as unstoppable as the Niners.
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Sam Howell came into this week’s game with 58 sacks and 14 picks in 567 dropbacks (12.7%). That’s bad. I know he’s piled up fantasy points, but I’d be surprised if he was the QB for Washington in 2024. It’s possible, and even probable, that Washington would have a better record with Jacoby Brissett.
Burn those “Dak Prescott To Win MVP” tickets in the street. Just abject humiliation for him and the Cowboys.
The Bills had 28 first downs on just 85 passing yards. That’s crazy. They had 20 rushing first downs.
James Cook was amazing and people are talking about him being a playoff hero. But if you paid the price to draft Cook, you probably did not make the playoffs. Cook came into the game with four touchdowns. It’s like touchdowns are advanced analytics now. Talk about missing what’s right in your face. There’s no path to touchdowns for Cook now and probably not in 2024, either. The big problem is Josh Allen (11 rushing TDs), whose running just can’t be chastened.
Washington always finds some reason to sideline Antonio Gibson. So you can’t count on him even when injuries seem to clear a path to certain touches. Nothing is certain with Gibson.
Christian McCaffrey scored his 20th TD with his last of his three scores. He has three more games left to break the all-time NFC record of 28 (2005 Shaun Alexander). The Niners’ record is 23 by Jerry Rice, which he did in just 12 games in 1987 (also a strike year). He’s on pace to be the fifth player ever with 2000+ scrimmage yards and 25+ TDs — LaDainian Tomlinson 2006, Priest Holmes 2003, Marshall Faulk 2000, Emmitt Smith 1995. Two of these RBs won the MVP (LT and Faulk). That’s 50% for the math challenged and believers in the trope that non-QBs have no path to MVP. Literally the last guy to do what McCaffrey is on pace to do was the MVP.
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How great was it for fantasy football to see Arthur Smith step on another banana peel? He put Bijan Robinson into fumble jail. Kyle Pitts and Drake London combined for 61 yards. And the Falcons scored seven points. Unless he buys the Falcons and appoints himself “Coach for Life,” he’s going to get fired, maybe by the time you read this.
Trey McBride or David Njoku could be the TE1 if Travis Kelce retires, or even if he doesn’t. I understand Kelce will be the pick, but it’s possible for McBride or Njoku to surpass him in scoring. Bottom line: Don’t take the first TE in 2024, as we sit.
Jaylen Waddle really stepped up against a quality defense and ditto for Tua Tagovailoa.
Raheem Mostert had two more TDs and it’s impossible to even imagine him not getting a gigantic share of snaps if healthy in 2024 — so De’Von Achane is being overdrafted in early mocks, I firmly believe. If you don’t have goal-line carries, you can’t be a first-round pick. Simple rule. Remember it.
Tommy DeVito is a nice story but a bad QB who’s been sacked 35 times in 195 dropbacks (17.9% sack rate, wholly unconscionable). I find his agent with his Spirit Halloween “NJ Mobster” attire to be a cartoonish boor, in case you think all New Jersey Italians are charmed by this.
We’ll also see how stuff like this goes over. Not well, I suspect.
Coniglio’s pizzeria and bakery in Morristown, NJ says that it will no longer have Tommy DeVito at the restaurant this Tuesday.
They said they were told his fee increased from $10,000 to $20,000 after the Packers win and the family biz said they couldn’t afford it.
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) December 18, 2023
To be fair to Alvin Kamara, he entered the week among the leaders in rushing success rate. So I guess there’s still some meat on the bone for next year. However, he’s going to be 29, which eliminates him from the Top 100 for me. If he can be had at a Mostert 2023 price, fine. But I can’t see him sliding that far. Rules are rules. I always bet the base rate.
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Rashee Rice has had at least nine targets in four straight games. He’s produced 32 catches and three TDs in the span. With no upgrade to the receiving corps via a veteran, Rice is definitely a Top 20 WR and, given Patrick Mahomes, probably inside of that. If he continues this pace, he’ll go inside the Top 40 overall picks in 2024.
Justin Fields could not get anything going on the ground. But he had two touchdown passes dropped, including one on the final play that turned into a pick. And he threw a pick on the final play of both halves. I’d trade a first-round pick for him and his traits if I was in the middle or end of the draft. I think the Bears should reset with a new QB and take that first rounder for Fields. It’s just math. Nothing against Fields. It’s resetting the contract and the odds of a QB becoming great when he hasn’t been in his first three seasons. You can’t pass up a QB who teams would pay three No. 1 picks to draft.
Joe Flacco really rebounded from a bevy of turnovers against a Chicago defense that had been great all year and especially of late. If Amari Cooper managers had Flacco all season long, their teams would probably still be alive. And Njoku is such a weapon. He’s the best athlete in the league now at tight end. I hope he slides past the fifth round somehow in 2024.
Elijah Moore is “Just A Guy.” The experts still love him for some reason. You need to ignore them and pass. He simply does not earn targets and never has, really.
Baker Mayfield had 381 yards and a perfect passer rating. That’s just crazy efficiency. Hats off to him, but just a disgraceful defensive performance by the Packers, who are loaded with first-round picks on defense.
I guess Chris Godwin has been rediscovered. Our game can be very weird. Godwin has as many targets the past two games (23) as he had the prior four. He remains allergic to TDs though.
Jayden Reed should get carries every game. But he got none against the Bucs.
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It seems like Dontayvion Wicks has bypassed Romeo Doubs in the pecking order. Wicks had traits far above his draft slot and he’s expressing them. So, hat tip.
Devin Singletary had a walk-off TD in overtime called back (holding by a WR) that would have turned a very good day into a great one. He had 170 yards and four catches.
Noah Brown also stepped up for the third straight time when healthy. Forget about the limited snaps when working his way back. He’s at 21 catches for 407 yards and two TDs in those three games, one with Case Keenum at QB. I hope everyone forgets this come August.
Derrick Henry now is at 3.8 yards per carry for the year, according to my calculator, after a nine-yard, 16-tote disaster. It’s over for Henry.
(Photo of Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)
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